Proving once again that bank analysts get bored just doing financial analyses, forecasters at Swiss-based UBS are predicting the winner of the upcoming World Cup — and it’s Germany.
In a lengthy note issued Thursday by UBS Investment Research, the defending World Cup champions were forecast to come out on top again, following exhaustive research by a team of 18 analysts and 10,000 computer simulations of the tournament. The analysts used factors such as team strength, qualification record and past World Cup performance.
The report gives Germany a 24% likelihood of winning, followed by Brazil at 19.8% and Spain at 16.1%.
“Germany and Brazil are set for an easy start, while Spain will have to hit the ground running if they are to beat Portugal, the current European champions, in their opening game,” Michael Bolliger, head of UBS’s emerging-market asset allocation, said in the report.
In a bit of a surprise, perennial disappointment England is ranked fourth-most likely to win, at 8.5%. France, Belgium and Argentina are also seen as dark-horse contenders.
“England has a balanced team, an attribute that complements teamwork and can transform a successful team into a future champion,” Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, said in a statement....