Ever since Goldman bucked the prevailing sell-side trend which almost uniformly saw Germany as the winner of the 2018 World Cup, and declared Brazil as its favorite, many were skeptical about the Latin American nation's chances in this world cup. Which is why, to many the "shocking" defeat of Brazil at the hands of Beglium was not really all that shocking.
So with Goldman's bracket having been busted, who does the bank now sees as the statistical odds-on favorite to win the World Cup in Russia? Here is the latest "statistical" update from Goldman's Jan Hatzius:
Friday saw France win against Uruguay 2—0 (vs GS 1.27—1.01), and in an unexpected twist, Belgium defeat favourites Brazil 2—1 (vs GS 1.15—1.38). Saturday was generally in line with our model's projections, with England winning against Sweden 2—0 (vs GS 1.34—1.20), and Croatia defeating hosts Russia in penalties 2(4)—2(3) (vs GS 1.56—1.16).
With Brazil now out of the world cup, Belgium is at the top of our probability table with a 32.6% chance of lifting the trophy, closely followed by France (29.8%). Similarly, our model's modal projection is for Belgium to defeat France and England en route to winning the tournament.
Exhibit 1: World Cup Probabilities
Exhibit 2: Bracket Projection
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All else equal, congratulations to England and/or Croatia....