Wednesday, 20 November 2019 14:20

Blain: "I Am Still Trying To Figure Out How Boeing Survives"

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Blain: "I Am Still Trying To Figure Out How Boeing Survives"

Blain's Morning Porridge, submitted by Bill Blain of Shard Capital

"If you can walk away from a landing, it’s a good landing. If you can use the plane the next day, its an outstanding landing."

No US China trade deal!  Just threats of more tariffs - quelle surprise. After Tesla made a surprise profit and announced cash in the bank, I’m glad I held onto 6 Shares – they are going to make me indescribably wealthy in dotage (dream on...) After not watching the indescribably awful Boris vs Corbyn debate last night (I tried, but it was just too painful), I am wondering why we put our trust in such frankly terrible people?  I guess it’s because we share their worst characteristics and aspirations….

I did watch a masterclass on comparative media-handling skills this morning; a very erudite and engaging chap from the SNP sat on the Brek-drek couch, held an open and engaging posture, listened to the presenters, nodding in agreement with them, kept calm, considered and answered conversationally, all the while still giving the same response about it being Scotland’s right to another referendum to every question. He was good. Then some dimwit Tory/Labour spokesperson proceeded to talk down to the presenter, ranted combatively about how Corbyn/Boris said something they didn’t, and treated everyone with disdain. She seemed to think constantly repeating the same stock answer made what she was declaring fact.  

This election just ain’t working for me…… 

So, lets get back to business and talk about finance and markets…

Aviation Finance 

Boeing is having a decent Dubai Airshow this week. They have sold 60 new B-737 Max jets to Kazakhstan and Turkish airlines – despite the Max remaining grounded. Even better, they will sell 40 Dreamliner B-787’s to Emirates, (but lost orders for the delayed B-777x), plus another 3 to Ghana.  It’s the first good news for Boeing in a long while – although its clouded by the fact Airbus is outselling them across the board. Both aircraft makers have been offering substantial discounts on new orders.

Sales at an airshow don’t fix Boeing. 

The whole “Aviation-as-an-asset” sector is facing headwinds. Aviation transactions still represent good value – producing positive predictable returns, but the possibility of trade downturns, a long-term China/US spat, plus new pressures on flying in terms of carbon emissions, are changing the numbers – especially in terms of used aircraft valuations. Passenger growth is slowing. That don’t mean Aviation has suddenly become a dangerous sector, but one where the narrative is changing rapidly.

Investors in the sector have to be even more careful. 

It’s not just the effects of global economic slowing, or the cost implications of cheaper new aircraft pushing down second-hand values. Aviation is no longer a fashionable investment market. Many investors I speak with are particularly concerned about...

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