If one looks at the weeds of today's jobs report which showed just 194K jobs added, the lowest monthly increase in 2021 and missing all but one of the 72 economist forecasts, it was hardly the stinker the headline number suggested. For one, the unemployment rate slumped to 4.8% from 5.2% as the number of unemployed workers (counted by the Household Survey) plunged by 710K while the number of employed rose 526K, even as the civilian labor force declined by 183K. Another positive aspect is that hourly earnings rose 0.6% from the previous month, up from 0.4% in August. Then there were the prior revisions which added a total of 169K in the previous two months.
But despite these mitigating factors, the focus was on the headline print (which comes from the Establishment Survey) and which was, for lack of a better word, dismal, and not far from where the Fed would reconsider a November taper announcement (certainly pay attention to what FOMC members will say in the coming weeks, at least those who don't day trader).
Drilling down into the headline jobs print, we find several notable highlights:
First, the number of private payrolls, at +317K, was actually not that bad, and was virtually unchanged from last month's 332K (post revision and 243K pre). Expect upward revisions next month as the BLS "normalizes" its seasonal adjustment rate. Of note here, while leisure and hospitality hiring was depressed in August and September due to the delta wave, at least it was above zero. Recall that the original August jobs report showed 0 gains for the sector, a number which has since risen to 38,000. In September, another 74,000 jobs were added...