By Michael Every of Rabobank
Freedom isn't free money
As we know, the Ukraine war is taking place on several fronts: and, as we underlined before it started, the Ukraine metacrisis is too.
The Russian Defense Ministry officially released data showing 9,861 Russian troops have been killed, with 16,153 injured. That is getting close to the tally of the entire 11-year Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. That news was then rapidly deleted from their media, like a certain laptop. Aging Russia does not have the young men to waste on this war, and we already had rumors that boys from patriotic youth organisations may be drafted too: the ultra-nationalist babushky most in favor of the war are too old to fight it. As feared, this also ups the ante for Russia to escalate to heavier bombardment of civilian areas. Mariupol refused to surrender yesterday – what happens to it now remains to be seen, but it does not look good for its inhabitants.
Moreover, US President Biden has warned of imminent Russian cyber-attacks, and of the risk of a chemical attack – which Russia has itself warned that Ukraine will soon attempt, which others see as a false flag.
Yesterday was also absent the usual attempts to spin that ‘a peace deal is close’. Indeed, listening to an international relations expert yesterday, I was struck by the flimsiness of his arguments. A deal, he said, would involve Ukraine giving up Crimea and its east; not joining the EU or NATO, and getting security guarantees. Fine: but that overlooks that this sounds a lot like Russia winning; more so if sanctions are then removed; and...