After a frenzied week which saw not just the US slide into technical recession just hours after the Fed hiked rates by a whopping 75bps for the 2nd time in a row (hence accelerating the US slowdown), as well as record bonanza of corporate earnings, markets still won't get the chance with US payrolls on Friday, followed by CPI on Wednesday 10th. If nothing out of the ordinary occurs in these two prints though maybe we can have a quiet two or three weeks according to DB's Jim Reid, who however notes that if payrolls are far from consensus and/or CPI is strong then "we may have some fun and games in August. It’s a month of low liquidity and if something big happens it can be multiplied in such thin trading."
Outside of payrolls, the other most important events this week include the manufacturing PMIs and ISM today, the RBA decision and US JOLTS tomorrow, services PMIs and ISM Wednesday, and the likely biggest hike from the BoE for 27 years alongside the increasingly important US jobless claims data on Thursday. Apart from that, earnings are still coming from all directions, but we are past halfway in the US with over 260 companies having reported. It’s 232 in the Stoxx 600. It might be hard to eclipse the big US tech week last week though. The other thing to look out for is whether US House Speaker Pelosi visits Taiwan this week on her Asian trip. It could set off a major geopolitical incident if she does and domestic accusations of backing down to China if she doesn't given she'd previously said she would visit.
The full day by day week...