Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes winner Justify will make a run for the horse-racing record books Saturday as he attempts to win the Belmont Stakes and complete a historic sweep of the Triple Crown.
Justify would become just the 13th horse to win the Triple Crown and just the second undefeated horse to capture the elusive prize. Only Seattle Slew in 1977 has accomplished that feat. Majestic Prince in 1969, Smarty Jones in 2004 and Big Brown in 2008 went into the Belmont Stakes undefeated after winning the Kentucky Derby and Preakness but were beaten as big favorites in the third leg of the Triple Crown.
All of those horses had more experience than Justify going into the Belmont. But Justify has already proven that historical norms don’t apply to him. He won the Kentucky Derby in just his fourth lifetime start, and in doing so, beat the dreaded Curse of Apollo as the first horse since 1892 to win the Derby without having raced as a 2-year-old.
American Pharoah is the last Triple Crown winner, having swept the series in 2015. Neither Nyquist or Always Dreaming, the Kentucky Derby winners of 2016 and 2017, were able to capture the middle jewel of the crown in the Preakness Stakes.
When a Triple Crown is on the line, the Belmont Stakes always gets elevated in the public’s mind and this year is no exception. According to ticketing site Vivid Seats, the average cost of a reserved seat for this year’s race is $314, up 145% from 2017. That beats the $300 average in 2014 when California Chrome, a horse who had grown a popular following, pursued the Triple Crown. The next year prices for American Pharoah’s Triple Crown win actually fell to near $260. With no crown on the line in 2016 and 2017 prices were less than half that, hovering near $120.
Wagering strategy
Justify is the 4-5 morning-line favorite for the Belmont. Hofburg is the second choice at 9-2; Bravazzo, the only other horse he will face who competed in both the Derby and Preakness, and Vino Rosso are next at 8-1.
But as low as Justify’s morning-line odds are, they are likely to be lower — perhaps even as low as 1-5 — by post time, which is set for 6:46 p.m. Eastern Saturday.
“He’ll be a really short price. The only real question in [betting the race] is are you with him or against him? I’m with him,” said Mike Beer, Daily Racing Form’s New York handicapper, on a Wednesday handicapping conference call. “He’s just a lot better than these horses.”
The one knock against Justify is his speed figures, a handicapping measure that attempts to quantify a horse’s performance across differing race tracks and surfaces. Even though he won the Derby convincingly, Justify’s speed figure for that race was lower than his previous win in the Santa Anita Derby. And his Preakness performance rated lower...