The Dow Jones Industrial Average on Monday had its best day in about a month, but Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Partners says investors shouldn’t be lulled into a false sense of security amid intensifying clashes over global trade.
Check out: Trade-war tracker: Here are the new levies, imposed and threatened[1]
Concerns about global trade confrontations, notably between the U.S. and China, have apparently taken a back seat to healthy labor market reports and the hope of strong second-quarter corporate results later in the week. The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq were all on track for a third straight daily gain. Indeed, the Dow DJIA, +1.31%[2] closed up about 320 points Monday, with the S&P 500 SPX, +0.88%[3] technology-and-internet laden Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, +0.88%[4] and small-capitalization oriented Russell 2000 RUT, +0.62%[5] all enjoying a solid start to the first full week of trade in July[6].
However, Minerd, chief investment officer for Guggenheim and one of the world’s pre-eminent bond-fund managers, advised more than a dollop of caution should be employed by investors, who risk whistling through the proverbial graveyard. Via Twitter, the investment manager said: “Markets are crazy to ignore the risks and consequences of a #tradewar. This rally in #stocks is the last hurrah! Investors should sell now, speculators may do better in August”
Markets are crazy to ignore the risks and consequences of a #tradewar[7]. This rally in #stocks[8] is the last hurrah! Investors should sell now, speculators may do better in August.
— Scott Minerd (@ScottMinerd)July 9, 2018
In recent days Minerd also has pointed to the flattening of the yield curve, a line that plots yields across all debt maturities, particularly the two-year Treasury TMUBMUSD02Y, +0.48%[10] and 10-year notes TMUBMUSD10Y, +0.22%[11] Bond yields fall as prices rise. A flattening curve is a bad omen for Wall Street...