While economic data reporting enters a brief lull in the post-payrolls week, which coupled with the trailing end in Q1 earnings season...
... means things should slow down substantially if only for a few days, there are still market-moving catalysts this week, and none more important than this week's US CPI print, among other data including PPI, import & export prices U. Michigan sentiment and a murder of central bank speakers.
Coming off the back of a Fed meeting where the most interesting statement changes were those acknowledging the pickup in inflation, Deutsche Bank notes that it's hard to look past next week's US CPI report as being the main focus for markets. Away from the US, the Bank of England policy meeting - where analysts are torn whether Mark Carney will/won't hike rates - will also be a closely watched event, while there is plenty of Fedspeak front loaded into the week including Fed Chair Powell.
On the tail end of the week, the Iran nuclear accord deal deadline also looms for President Trump while NAFTA talks also resume.
Elsewhere:
- In the Eurozone, a quiet week with factory orders and industrial production for Germany.
- In the UK, beyond the BoE rates meeting, we have the inflation report, trade balance, industrial & manufacturing production and construction output.
- In Japan, we have current account balance, money supply M2 & M3 and the BoJ meeting minutes.
- In Canada, we have housing starts, building permits, labor market report and central bank speakers.
- In China, we get foreign reserves, trade balance, PPI, CPI, money supply, new yuan loans and aggregate financing.
- In Australia, we have business confidence, retail sales and investment lending.
- In New Zealand, we have the RBNZ rates meeting, finance minister pre-budget speech and PMI Manufacturing.
Also, there are monetary policy meetings in Malaysia, Romania, Peru and The Philippines. Sovereign rating review in Egypt and Oman. CPI data will be released in China and Mexico.
A full visual summary of the week's key events:
Some more details on the week's key events, courtesy of DB's Craig Nicol, who notes that with regards to the US CPI report on Thursday, the current market consensus for the April data is a +0.3% mom headline reading - which would push the annual rate up to +2.5% yoy from +2.4% - and a +0.2% mom core print which would also push the annual rate up one-tenth to +2.2% and the highest since February last year.
Also notable, the market consensus for the monthly core reading is the 31st consecutive month that the consensus has been +0.2% which is a remarkable statistic: "You have to go back to September 2015 to find the last time it wasn't +0.2%. It's worth noting that of the 30 previous monthly estimates, only 17 have matched the consensus while just 6...