“We will pay the price, but we will not count the cost.” – Rush, “Bravado”
Donald Trump's decision to withdraw from the Iran Nuclear Deal could spark a major reset of foreign relations. Is this a mistake or the right course of action?
That depends on your perspective. It depends on whether you believe, as the Israelis do, that Iran is ready to build a nuclear weapon to point at them.
But the bigger question to me is whether Trump is willing to put on the table what he needs to get what he wants, a secure Israel and an Iran without nukes. Tearing up the deal may be the first step towards that end, but not in the way he’s thinking.
Where’s the Beef?
Now, thousands of column inches have been spilled detailing how inordinately stupid it would be for either Israel or Iran to lob nukes at one another. No matter who starts it, the ending will be tragic for much of the world.
So, no sane person would do this right? The narrative has been spun up that Israel is rational and Iran is not. Pure and simple. That’s the narrative. That justifies taking away Iran’s ultimate right to defend itself against aggression from foreign powers.
Both sides of this conflict can rightly point fingers at the other as to their adventures beyond their own borders. And here I break with my libertarian brethren. It does little good today to say who is more justified. To argue about who started it. Because we are well beyond that point.
So, what does Donald Trump want? What’s his main beef with the JCPOA?
The sunset clause.
He wants a guarantee in writing from Iran to forever stop development of a nuclear weapon. Israel has been pushing for this policy point since the end of the Iran/Iraq war, which is where all of this likely started.
Iran, in response to Saddam Hussein’s own tactical nuclear weapons development, began work on theirs. After this the whole thing gets murky. But, let’s assume that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is right about one thing; that Iran is year or two away from a nuclear weapon.
So, to Trump the sunset clause is moronic.
And, rightly so. But, that’s not the whole story.
The Price of the Deal
Now let’s go back to 2012. The U.S. and its partners – Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey – begin the regime change operation in Syria.
We use the financial equivalent of a nuclear strike, cutting them from the SWIFT electronic payment network. We freeze hundreds of billions in Iranian assets.
The U.S. cuts Iran out of the global financial system to effect regime change. The Iranian Rial devalues 50% overnight.
Syria’s biggest ally other than Russia is neutralized through financial warfare....