Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,
Theresa May, the worst negotiator in history, splintered the Tories so badly the Brexit Party is nearly even in polls.
Farage Forms New Party
The Guardian reports Tories Hit by New Defections and Slump in Opinion Polls as Party Divide Widens.
The bitter fallout from Brexit is threatening to break the Tory party apart, as a Europhile former cabinet minister Stephen Dorrell on Sunday announces he is defecting to the independent MPs’ group Change UK, and a new opinion poll shows Conservative support plummeting to a five-year low as anti-EU parties surge.
The latest defections come as a new Opinium poll for the Observer shows a dramatic fall in Tory support in the past two weeks and a surge for anti-EU parties. The Conservatives have fallen by six percentage points to 29% compared to a fortnight ago. It is their worst position since December 2014. Labour is up one point on 36% while Ukip is up two points on 11%.
Even more alarmingly for the Tories, their prospects for the European elections appear dire. Only 17% of those certain to vote said they would choose the Conservatives in the European poll, while 29% would back Labour, and 25% either Ukip (13%) or Nigel Farage’s new Brexit party (12%).
YouGov Poll
A more recent YouGov Poll looks even worse for the Tories
European Parliament voting intention:
— Britain Elects (@britainelects) April 13, 2019
LAB: 24% (-1)
CON: 16% (-8)
BREX: 15% (+15)
UKIP: 14% (-13)
GRN: 8% (-)
LDEM: 8% (+1)
CHUK: 7% (+7)
SNP & PC: 6%
via @YouGov, 10 - 11 Apr
Chgs. w/ 2014 result, GB-wide
Tabs: https://t.co/PUGnSpBmsX pic.twitter.com/OEmAv0UDNR
In the YouGov poll, UKIP and BREX total 29%.
Polls Volatile
Eurointellingence has these thoughts on the polls.
We have noted before that classic opinion polls at a time like this are next to useless. But we found an interesting constituency-level poll, by Electoral Calculus, showing for the first time that Labour would get enough constituency MPs to form a minority government with the support of the SNP. This is a shift from previous such exercises, which predicted a continuation of the status quo with the Tories still in command.
This latest poll, too, is subject to our observation of massively intruding volatility. It says that some of the Tory’s most prominent MPs would be at risk, including Amber Rudd and Iain Duncan-Smith. And we agree with the bottom-line analysis of John Curtice, the pollster, who said the abrupt fall in support for Tories is due entirely to their failure to have delivered Brexit on time.
The Tories are facing two...