With Walmart unofficially set to close Q1 earnings season, which despite being the strongest in 7 years failed to boost the S&P500, all attention will remain glued on the interplay of the rates-dollar-oil trio, and judging by the somber overnight market action, traders are not too excited with the ongoing meltup in all three.
U.S. stock index-futures inched lower driven by contracts on the Nasdaq 100 as Cisco’s forecasts fell short of Wall Street’s most optimistic projections. European stocks are mixed although concerns about Italy's new government are rising again, while Asia was modestly in the red.
In the early session, U.S. 10-year TSY yields extended their advance to over 3.1%, rising as high as 3.12%. The 5s30s curve pared an earlier steepening move to flatten slightly.
Focus remains on 3.22% level in 30-year bond, which is this year’s highest closing level and has also has been highlighted by market commentators. Rising just shy of 3.25%, the 30Y rose to its highest level since 2015, showing that this year’s selloff has spread to the most-resilient part of the world’s biggest bond market.
The other main driver of risk, the Dollar index (in this case the BBDXY), slipped initially as talk on the probability of U.S. yield-inversion prompted some profit-taking, but it then quickly erased the drop as the yield on 30-year notes hit fresh cycle highs after the London open.
Sterling provided intraday traders with the volatility they were looking for amid conflicting reports over the U.K.’s intentions to stay in the EU customs union, while the euro stayed in a lower-highs pattern as leveraged names fade rallies given Italy risks remain. Buoyed by the sinking Euro, European stocks edged higher.
As Bloomberg notes, there were three moving parts within European session;
- Firstly, U.K. markets react to Telegraph story of extended customs union, despite further reports tempering impact. Short Sterling curve bear steepens, gilts gap lower at the open and GBP outperforms other G-10 FX.
- Secondly, BTP/bund spread tightens marginally as debt write-off fears from Italy subside, however BTP futures still weak as damage to sentiment from eurosceptic/fiscally loose govt. is already done.
- Finally, USTs curve snaps steeper in early trading, 10y yield hits 312bps before fading back slightly; overall leading to underpinning of USD, USD/JPY accelerates higher after breaking above 110.50. UST/bund spread tightens as block trades print, large German 5s30s steepener also blocked.
The energy sector will also be in focus after oil rose to $80 a barrel in London for the first time since November 2014 as U.S. crude inventories fell and traders braced for the impact of renewed sanctions on OPEC member Iran. Money managers who are reducing their bullish bets on oil are following a “dangerous” strategy, according to Goldman Sachs which today released its latest bullish note on oil, suggesting that just like in the summer of 2008 Goldman is...