TOPEKA, Kan. (AP) - Competitive races for two of Kansas’ four U.S. House seats are making Republicans sweat to keep their all-GOP[1] state delegation, a twist in a state where President Donald Trump[2] won by nearly 21 points and a leading candidate for governor is gun-rights and immigration hardliner Kris Kobach[3].
In one case, the Republican incumbent who faced a tighter-than-expected race two years ago faces a field of Democrats energized by dislike of Trump[4] on issues including immigration, health care and the environment. In the other, potential big-name candidates opted not to run for the open seat, leaving a Democrat with the best name recognition.
Republicans say they can feel their opponents’ energy and have been issuing warnings to their conservative base for months.
“Both of those races are ones that we have known we have to be diligent in and work hard,” state GOP[5] Chairman Kelly Arnold said. “Who has the motivation to come out? The party that’s not in power usually picks up seats and some wins. That’s what we’re fighting against.”
To boost Democrats’ chances in both districts, the House Majority super PAC announced plans to reserve $900,000 in television ad time in the Topeka and Kansas City in the weeks before the election, far more attention than Kansas Democrats running for Congress have received in recent elections. The conservative Congressional Leadership Fund then promised nearly $3 million worth of ad time.
Democrats need to pick up 23 seats nationally to flip the majority in the House.
Incumbent Republican Kevin Yoder was destined to be a midterm target after Trump[6] narrowly lost his Kansas City-area 3rd District and its urban neighborhoods and comfortable-to-posh suburbs. Yoder himself fared worse than expected. Democrats sensed Trump[7] might be a liability and both sides poured money into the race at the last minute in 2016, giving Yoder an 11-point margin against an unknown Democrat - less than half his previous average.
But Democrats’ chances could be better in the neighboring 2nd District, which covers most of eastern Kansas from Nebraska to Oklahoma. Incumbent Republican Lynn Jenkins opted not to seek re-election. Democrats have their ideal candidate in former state legislative leader and governor candidate Paul Davis. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee included Davis on its first list of 11 candidates in promising races for its “Red to Blue” program. Seven lesser-known Republicans are vying for their party’s nomination.
“Republicans, generically, have the wind in their face,” said Patrick Miller, a political scientist at the University of Kansas. “If this were 2010 or 2014, we wouldn’t even be talking about the 2nd District.”...
Davis carried Jenkins’ district during his narrow statewide loss to Sam Brownback in the 2014 race for governor. Republicans who might have had equally strong support - Attorney General Derek Schmidt and State Treasurer Jake LaTurner,