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It’s dangerous to extrapolate too much from any single special election, but the trend is clear across nearly all of the special elections over the past year: Democrats are over-performing and Republicans are struggling to hold open seats.

Democrats’ over-performance hasn’t been limited by geography, considering Democrats have done better than expected in Montana, Kansas, South Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Arizona, even if they’ve fallen short in all but one of those races. 

Defeating incumbent Republicans should be more difficult for Democrats, considering Members’ connection and name identification across the entire district and potential for better fundraising compared to an open-seat…

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